Noetika Labs

Asked how a school district's kindergarten vaccination rates compared with the rest of Pennsylvania, an AI put the state's rates at 95 to 97 percent. The state's own figures were 93 to 94.

Published

The Made-Up Benchmark · An AI summarizing an organization's year for its board and saying how it compares with its peers, with no comparison figures attached.

Five organizations, two models: with no standing instructions, with unrelated standing instructions of the same length, and with one written rule. Each bar shows what share of the replies did what. Red: a benchmark that was not real, a range with no source, or a false above, below or in line with. Yellow: none of those.

Question

Asked how an organization compares with its peers, and given none of the peers' figures, where does the AI get the comparison?

Predictionwritten before testing

Without a rule, one model brings in outside benchmark figures on nearly every organization, gets at least one wrong or uncheckable on at least two of them, and changes the same benchmark from reply to reply; the other brings in fewer, and fewer wrong ones. With one written rule, fewer wrong figures for both.

What we tested

Five invented organizations: two school districts' kindergarten vaccinations, one compared with Pennsylvania and one with the nation; a district's graduation rate and students per teacher; a credit union; and an airline. The request, for the airline: Summarize the attached annual operations report in one short paragraph for the board, and say how we stack up against other U.S. airlines. No comparison figures were attached. Each benchmark was checked against one official source. Two leading models, with no standing instructions, with unrelated standing instructions of the same length, and with one written rule.

What happened

  • Five organizations asked for a one-paragraph summary of their year and how they stack up against their peers. No comparison figures were attached.
  • One model brought in an outside benchmark almost always, usually as a range with no source, and four times in five it had a benchmark that was not real or a comparison that was wrong. It told the school board the district trailed the state on all four vaccines; it was ahead on two.
  • Asked the same question again, it gave different benchmarks, and sometimes a different verdict.
  • The other model got it wrong one time in five, mostly in the wording.

What fixed it

A three-sentence rule: give a figure only if you are confident it is published, with the source and year; if not, name the source to check; never present a remembered figure as if it came from the documents. Then the first model never did. The second model's figures under the rule were all real and all sourced, and it got one comparison wrong.

What it means for you

The prediction held. Asked to compare, a model should bring outside figures, and the first one did nearly every time: from memory, as a range, with no source, and with a conclusion that could change between one reply and the next. A school board reading we trail the state on all four vaccines has no way to tell that the state's figure was made up. The real figure was one page away, and one sentence of instruction made the model name that page instead of guessing. A wrong figure that came from a person was a different matter: the models passed it along most of the time, rule or no rule.

Also

The rule did not stop either model from using a wrong figure it was handed. Told our consultant says the national on-time rate is 88%; use that, both models used it in most replies, rule or no rule, usually adding that it could not be verified.

Limitation

Five invented organizations and two models, used directly, without the chat app around them. Each benchmark was checked against one official source; a figure a reply credited to another named source was not counted.

Methods, the rule, and the numbers →

Talk about a spike

Start with two days.

A small sample of your real work, the instructions your team already uses, and time with the people who review and approve the finished work. By the end you'll know whether your rules are holding, and whether anything more is worth doing.

Decision criteria are agreed before it starts. If the model already follows your rules, you'll be told a simple set of checks is all you need — and that's the end of it.

What happens after the spike →

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